What if the Democrats had had a primary?

In response to my assertion yesterday, that the democrats had no realistic path to 270 and it was obvious from January. I had a discussion with a friend of mine who believes the Democrats could have won if they had done things differently

Her argument was essentially this, if Biden had retired, and not run at all in 2024 the Democrats would have had a proper primary and wound up with a moderate candidate then she and others like her would have voted for them. She didn’t like Trump but couldn’t vote for Harris. So if the democrats had put up a moderate candidate, through a normal primary process, then she and others like her would have likely voted Democrat and Trump would have lost.

Its an interesting hypothetical, but I still don’t see this as what would have happened, even if the Dems had had a primary. One of the reasons Joe Biden got tapped in 2020 in the first place was directly related to how radical the democrat primary field was in 2020 was. DNC and powers that be knew that none of the folks in the primary process were moderate enough to win the general election, and if they continued down the path they were on they would lose the general election. They needed someone in the primaries they could sell as a moderate, and that someone was Joe Biden.

For a moment I’ll put away the historical constant, that no incumbent party has ever won the White House when less than 30% of the population believes the country is on the right track, and just stick to the hypotheticals. We’ll come back to it at the end.

So lets go down the what if scenario. Biden decides he isn’t going to run in 2024, and the Democrats have an open primary. So, Who’s running? Well lets see, Kamala we would assume would run since she ran in 2020 and is the sitting VP. Bernie again? Maybe, he did the best of the non Biden candidates in 2020, and frankly Hillary cheated him back in 2016, but he’s hardly a moderate. Buttigieg? Maybe…. Warren again? Maybe, but again, not a moderate. Not really anyone that is a moderate among that bunch.

So, who’s going to come in and be the moderate candidate if the Democrats run a primary in 2024? Whitmer? Newsome? Shapiro? No doubt those 3 all probably desire the presidency, and Shapiro is probably the most moderate of that bunch, but he’s also not a dummy. All 3 of these folks would know, they likely are only going to get 1 realistic shot at the presidency. Are they going to run being weighed down by Biden’s failed policies and administration? Plus if they run and lose, they will have lost to Trump, and they will likely never recover politically from that. Given this reality, I honestly doubt any of them would be foolish enough to run.

So who is going to be the moderate that you can put in this mix? Almost certainly will be some B roll back bencher, some party loyal senator, governor, perhaps an ex senator or ex governor, who normally would never have gotten a shot at the White House, or due to circumstances never got a chance when they were in their prime. This person is going to really have nothing personally to lose should they fail, but gains the a shot at the White House they never were going get otherwise. The democrat machine can push them through the primary, they can’t turn them into A tier candidate, Harris fiasco just proved that beyond a reasonable doubt. Trump, to be sure, is going to absolutely eat any second tier candidate up without breaking a sweat in the general, so who could be the “great white hope” so to speak?

Probably the only name I can think of that would come to mind, (and I admit there may be others, but this is the only one I can think of that would fit the moderate mold and possibly be willing to take it on), might be Manchin. He was retiring anyway, so he’s got nothing to lose and clearly has had desire for the White House for some time. He certainly is a well proven candidate and can hold his own and isn’t likely to collapse during a general election run. Unfortunately Manchin hasn’t been on the best terms with the party for a while, after Biden stabbed him in the back early in his administration. Manchin formally left the party in March, but let’s just play way back machine and pretend this is all before that so he is still a Democrat. He’s still disliked by a lot of the dems hard core base simply because he is a more moderate candidate. His votes to confirm Gorsuch etc made him persona non grata among the radical left wing of the Party, so not exactly sure he’d survive a primary, because you know the radical left wing is going to likely go ape shit against him, and even if he ultimate wins the nomination, he’s going to be considered damaged goods.

So, lets just play this out. Democrats survive a raucous contentious primary where the radical pro late term abortion wing of the party tries to stop Manchin, the more moderate wing works to push him through, and you wind up with Manchin as the nominee and a fractured party. Meanwhile, Trump is sailing through the primary process, and building up his coalition that he has built.

Manchin v Trump is the end game. Manchin is clearly a better overall candidate than Harris, who was the worst candidate in my lifetime by far. He is a far more moderate than Kamala would be. However, can he win vs Trump in this scenario? I really really don’t see it. I believe he certainly would do better than Harris did, but good enough to win? In the current environment? He’d certainly play better than Harris, he would not dodge the press or questions and he’s not stupid enough to think “orange man bad” in and of itself is a winning strategy. He can articulate policy positions and thinks on his feet and can form complete meaningful sentences. No doubt a better overall choice.

However, the democrat party is not a party that is kind to moderates, it hasn’t been in a long time. It’s activist base is anything but moderate, becoming more and more radicalized every year. How would they react when Manchin says something demonstrably moderate and plays to most americans, but goes against the radical/activist base of the party? Given how they react to Fetterman whenever he drops a truth bomb on them, I’m hard pressed they are going to sit back and let it slide.

Its an interesting scenario, but at the end of the day I still don’t see it, you just can’t get past 26% right track. Sure Manchin isn’t the person who actually cast the tie breaking vote to pass the “inflation reduction act” which wrecked the economy and caused 40% inflation, but he’s still voted for it, he’s still part of the party that did it, and without his vote it wouldn’t have required a tie breaking vote form Harris in the first place. Yes, Manchin would have some more distance from the failed Biden/Harris administration, but his voting record over the last 4 years ties him right back to every failed policy they have implemented. Manchin may be more free to criticize Biden than Harris did, but end of the day he’s would still be part of the fustercluck that has 75% of americans believing the country is on the wrong track.

Moderates just don’t sell in the democrat world these days, Casey is about as under the radar, keep your head down, “moderate” as you can find in the Democrat party these days, and he just went down in his re-election bid, now its true that loss is purely due to Trump’s coattails, but even without Trump on the ballot Casey was likely only going to hold on by a point or two.

I believe Manchin would change some things, the margins might not be so pronounced in some areas and with some sub groups, but I still don’t see him overcoming the simple question… Are you better off now, than you were 4 years ago? That’s just too big of a lift for anyone. Yes Manchin has more degrees of separation from Binden than Harris does, but I just don’t see it as enough to where those that answer that question with NO are going to be swayed that he, or any democrat, would be the one capable of being the change agent to make sure the next 4 years aren’t a continuation or repeat of the last four.

An interesting thoughy exercise though.